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Who will succeed Hailemariam as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister?

Ethiopia’s ruling coalition is due to meet soon to choose its next leader. That person will automatically become the Prime Pinister. They will be taking on the role at a time of bitter internal wrangles and violent protests.

Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced on February 15 that he would resign as both the chairperson of Ethiopia’s ruling coalition EPRDF and as PM – a position he had held since 2012.

Read: Ethiopian PM Hailemariam Desalegn resigns, says to pave way for reforms

So that leaves the 180-strong EPRDF council to choose the next PM.

The coalition is complex.

EPRDF is made up of four ethnically based political parties: the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM); the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO); the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The country’s ethnic make-up is Oromo – 34.4 per cent, Amhara – 27 per cent, Somali – 6.2 per cent, Tigray – 6.1 per cent and others – 26.3 per cent.

While the ANDM and OPDO have roots in Oromia and Amhara regions, which together account for more than half of Ethiopia’s population, it is the minority TPLF from Tigray region that controls the military and security apparatus and is seen as the dominant party in the coalition.

Bitter internal wrangles within the ruling coalition have however made it difficult to predict just who will become the next PM.

To make matters worse, the government failed to quell anger when it declared a state of emergency. Demonstrators in the west defied a ban on protests and marches became violent.

The coalition, which has been in power since 1991 after toppling the communist regime, is at a crossroads.

The bitter infighting is between reformists who feel the country is headed the wrong way and conservatives keen on maintaining the status quo and the grip on power.

Here’s a run down of the top seven contenders for Prime Minister.

1. LEMMA MAGERA

He is the current President of the Oromia Regional State and deputy leader of the OPDO.

The charismatic Magera is seen as a fearless and eloquent reformer. He was once quoted as saying he was ready to go out and join demonstrators if the government did not heed the demands of protesters especially from his region.

The 47-year-old was born and raised in East Welega, Oromia.

Last December he condemned the killings of protesters and the federal security forces’ intervention in the Oromia region without his region’s consent. He has also offered to hold dialogue with opposition groups.

He is deemed as an acceptable candidate who can unify the country but his path to the top seat is complicated. He’s not a member of the federal parliament, the House of People’s Representatives, a requirement to become PM.

Last December, a cartoon depicting Magera as the biblical Moses parting the Red Sea was widely shared on social media, showing just how his popularity “as a man with answers to the country’s problems” had soared.

Despite his meteoric rise within the ruling party and Ethiopia’s complex politics, his critics believe he is too inexperienced to take on the intricacies of the EPRDF.

2. ABIY AHMED

The current leader of the OPDO, Ahmaed, is seen as the front-runner in the race to succeed the outgoing Prime Minister having just been elected to head the party.

He is an astute politician with impressive academic and military credentials.

He was born in the city of Agaro in Oromia and comes from a mixed Christian-Muslim family. The 42-year-old joined the OPDO in the late 1980s.

He has served in the military and rose to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. He also took part in the UN peacekeeping mission to Rwanda.

He was the founder and director of the country’s Internet Security Agency between 2009 and 2012 after which he became the minister for science and technology.

He is seen by many as outspoken and competent and a person who leans to a participatory leadership style.

Ahmed is younger than the other potential leaders and is believed to have huge support among the Oromo youth as well as other ethnic groups.

His critics however say that as an EPRDF insider, he won’t offer much of the change demanded by protesters.

3. DEBRETSION MICHAEL 

Michael was born in Shire, located in the northern Tigray region. He dropped out of his studies at the University of Addis Ababa to join the armed struggle.

During this time he travelled to Italy where he completed training in communications technology, after which he established the regional TPLF radio station known as Dimtsi Weyane.

Soon after the EPRDF came into power in 1991, Michael served as the deputy to the head of the intelligence bureau.

He has been serving as the Director of the Information and Communication Development Agency since 2006 but also served as a Deputy Prime Minister.

He is the chairperson of the TPLF party and the deputy head of state for the Tigray region as well as the minister for information and communications.

Activists and opposition political parties argue that the TPLF dominates the political power in the coalition, so his election as PM would be a controversial move that would be likely to deepen divisions within the coalition and further inflame feelings of exclusion among the Oromo and Amhara communities.

Michael is a member of the House of People’s Representatives.

4. DEMEKE MEKONEN

He is the current Deputy Prime Minister.

He joined the EPRDF after university and a few years later became a member of the Amhara region council.

During the mid-2000s he became the deputy chief of the Amhara regional state and a year later became a member of the ANDM executive committee.

While on duty as chair of the ANDM, in 2013, he was appointed the deputy chair of the EPRDF.

Prior to coming to power, Mekonen was a teacher and served as the education minister.

The Deputy Prime Minister, who is a member of the House of People’s Representatives, is known to be a low-key player in the federal government.

It is unlikely the ANDM will take the PM’s position as the party has held the Deputy Prime Minister position for so long.

5. WORKNEH GEBEYEHU

He is a member of OPDO and is the current foreign affairs minister.

Born in the late 1960s, Gebeyehu has served for many years as the commissioner for the federal police commission.

In the late 2000s he was appointed as transport minister, a position he held for four years.

A member of the OPDO since the late 1980s, Gebeyehu has since the late 2000s served as a member of the executive committee for both the OPDO and EPRDF.

He is a member of the Addis Ababa city administration council but not a member of the House of People’s Representatives.

6. SIRAJ FEGESSA 

Ethiopia’s current defence minister has been the face of the state of emergencies announced in October 2016 and again in February 2018.

He has constantly appeared on state media articulating the conditions imposed by the state of emergency.

The sharply dressed but straight-faced politician is seen as one of the least favourite to become the new PM.

He is a member of the SEPDM, the same party as the recently resigned PM and has just been announced as its deputy leader, further complicating his ascendancy to power.

Some analysts say his party might argue that Hailemariam never finished his term and therefore might suggest that Fegessa or someone from within SEPDM for the premiership. This is however highly unlikely.

7. SHIFERAW SHIGUTE 

He is currently working with the secretariat of the EPRDF, previously he was the minister of education, and president of the southern Ethiopia regional state.

Shigute is the newly elected chairman of the SEPDM replacing the recently resigned PM who was also the chairman of the party.

Born in Haroressa, in the southern Ethiopia region, Shigute was a teacher before joining politics.

When the outgoing PM was still the region’s president, Shigute was deputy president of the southern Ethiopia regional state government.

When Hailemariam became Deputy Prime Minister and foreign minister under the late Meles Zenawi’s administration, Shigute assumed the presidency of the region.

Some people say his election as the chairman of the SEPDM was intended to enhance his chances of becoming PM.

Shiferaw is a member of the federal parliament from which the PM will be elected.

More on this: All parties need a stake in Ethiopia’s future, says opposition leader

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